Live Blog-04-12-2009

The 100% plus turnouts in some constituencies are perhaps not as mystifying as first appears. Firstly, we have to take the 822,000 registration figure as accurate (I'm personally not sure it is). But secondly we have to look back at the voting trends here. I am not too concerned about constituencies like Walvis Bay Urban, Swakopmund, Windhoek West, and Windhoek Rural. These are bound to have mobile populations that would cast high numbers of tendered votes. Windhoek Rural could be explained by Mix Settlement. If we look back at the more rural constituencies mentioned in The Namibian's report: In Omuthiya 11412 people voted as compared to 9845 in 2004 - that's a 14% increase - quite high but then since the last election Omuthiya has been made the regional capital, a regional council building has been built and government staff and their families have move there. Back in 1999 when Omuthiya was a more sleepy place 25% of the votes cast there were tendered. It is bound to be higher now.
At Onyaanya the total votes cast went up from 8502 in 2004 to 8889 now. Back in 1999 6603 people voted and the proportion of tendered votes was 21%. At Ondobe 10128 voted this time as compared to 9119 in 2004 and 10502 in 1999 (when 25% were tendered).
Unfortunately, the ECN at this election (and in 2004) has not announced separate figures for ordinary and tendered ballots which adds to the confusion.
I would like to see more figures from other places that have recorded high turnouts, before coming to a conclusion. But so far the figures reported in The Namibian this morning don't constitute a 'smoking gun' for rigging claims.