Live Blog-04-12-2009

From The Namibian today:

http://www.namibian.com.na/news/full-story/archive/2009/december/article/huge-voter-turnout/

'Huge' voter turnout

A RECORD 95,8 per cent of registered voters cast their votes in 60 of the 107 constituencies for which the Electoral Commission of Namibia had released results by lunchtime yesterday.

From the 60 constituencies for which results were available, 27 had a turnout of more than 100 per cent.
The Namibian used the voters’ roll released by the ECN on November 26 –a day before elections – to calculate the voter turnout against the registered voters.
From the 27 results that recorded more than a 100 per cent turnout, 21 were from the Oshikoto, Ohangwena, Oshana and Omusati regions. The four regions have 43 constituencies.
The voters’ roll released by the ECN a day before polling started had 822 344 registered people.
It also indicated that 463 263 people were registered in the 60 constituencies for which results were released by lunchtime yesterday, while the voter turn out was 443 920.
The high numbers could be a result of the tendered ballot system.
All indications were that people in the North voted in large numbers compared to a low turnout in the South.
In the Omuthiya constituency, 11 481 people voted – some through the tendered ballot system – although only 8 468 were registered. That was a 135 per cent turnout.
Other constituencies with very high turnouts included Onyaanya (135 per cent), Ongwediva (133 per cent), Ondobe (129 per cent), Swakopmund (112 per cent), Walvis Bay Urban (109,9 per cent) and even Windhoek West (104 per cent) and Windhoek Rural (100,7 per cent).
In sharp contrast to that, voters from the South stayed away in large numbers from polling stations.
One of the lowest turnouts was recorded in Reho-both Urban West, where only 41 per cent of the voters cast their votes, while in Rehoboth Rural 58,7 per cent turned up at the polling stations.
Keetmanshoop Urban recorded a 56,5 per cent turnout and Berseba 68 per cent.
The high voter turnout could be fatal to smaller parties, as it pushes up the number of votes needed per seat in Parliament.
If the voting trend continues through the country, some 787 805 people may have voted on November 27 and 28.
That would mean that political parties could need around 10 942 votes to get a seat in the National Assembly.
This could be bad news for the likes of the Communist Party, South West Africa National Union, Monitor Action Group and the Namibia Democratic Movement for Change, which have failed to reach the 10 000 mark in the past.
From the results available so far, Congress of Democrats, Democratic Party of Namibia and the National Democratic Party could join them this time around.
However, the trend is likely to go down and thus the votes per seat could be fewer than 10 000.
Of note in the results released so far was also the fact that there was a reasonably high voter turnout in constituencies such as Daures (72,5 per cent), Sesfontein (91,7 per cent) and Khorixas (88 per cent) where the United Democratic Front managed to fight off a Swapo challenge.
Otjinene (73,8 per cent), Aminuis (80,2 per cent) and Epukiro (70,9 per cent) also recorded high turnouts as Swapo and the National Unity Democratic Organisation went head to head.
For many opposition parties today will feel longer than most other days.
With the ECN having promised that it would announce the final results today, there is little suspense as to who will emerge the winner, as Swapo is expected to sweep back into Parliament with a handsome majority.
From the results out so far it is clear that newcomers Rally for Democracy and Progress, who joined the election fray with high hopes, have made their presence felt in the political arena and it has translated into enough ballot-box power for them to become the new official opposition.
The DTA has, again, seen a drop in its support. It has now happened with each successive election. The United Democratic Front (UDF) has managed to retain its traditional support base, as was generally predicted, along with Nudo.
The Republican Party and MAG appear unlikely to make any inroads. Their already small support base was likely eroded by the emergence of the RDP.